Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-27 32.177776 34.651963 37.330779 40.465863 44.059363 48.080474 52.964771
2025-05-04 28.783710 32.148708 36.027095 40.897777 46.956275 54.395907 64.480182
2025-05-11 26.374553 30.130197 34.633265 40.558134 48.358547 58.616079 73.783015
2025-05-18 24.481885 28.431129 33.306516 39.952900 49.104637 61.839583 82.161314
2025-05-25 22.913045 26.950670 32.050670 39.204403 49.427348 64.361596 89.896171
2025-06-01 21.635859 25.720053 30.979152 38.538560 49.699326 66.739082 97.853399
2025-06-08 20.423799 24.480277 29.782994 37.554718 49.336913 68.001025 104.094418
2025-06-15 20.067929 24.335027 30.033810 38.624112 52.167787 74.866014 123.013406
2025-06-22 19.362640 23.668566 29.505360 38.480197 53.037077 78.484814 136.575657
2025-06-29 18.583129 22.854843 28.711683 37.857381 53.027728 80.472297 147.162537
2025-07-06 17.752086 21.928961 27.703196 36.822060 52.200977 80.752610 153.625944
2025-07-13 17.556658 21.876940 27.948206 37.756112 54.869143 88.421167 183.951489
2025-07-20 17.296694 21.735667 28.074595 38.548368 57.466646 96.760997 223.606074
2025-07-27 16.946469 21.448082 27.964855 38.944345 59.392112 104.174237 268.124646
2025-08-03 16.450377 20.923891 27.462173 38.630958 59.895230 108.339099 304.635741
2025-08-10 15.932613 20.345715 26.845219 38.072138 59.836600 111.088690 338.571591
2025-08-17 15.419248 19.754303 26.179229 37.380449 59.426912 112.838078 370.434801
2025-08-24 14.955459 19.219993 25.578841 36.764586 59.109663 114.799228 408.084640
2025-08-31 14.453565 18.612442 24.838129 35.853630 58.073883 114.508113 430.677203
2025-09-07 14.390686 18.661024 25.141271 36.843746 61.281893 127.800421 607.814559
2025-09-14 14.096776 18.347753 24.845772 36.710579 61.964830 133.480386 743.938539
2025-09-21 13.729198 17.910299 24.330425 36.133994 61.561847 135.430477 846.303289
2025-09-28 13.303050 17.371647 23.631304 35.174496 60.173122 133.624019 881.778027